Consensus on Characters Before Reveals
Villager to Robin by SalsaSavant Feel free to expand on it, but please only do so if you were actually active in the community at the time. Super Smash Bros. for 3DS and Wii U Villager Hard Guess Most people didn't see an Animal Crossing character as possible, because Sakurai had previously said it was too peaceful a series. When the topic came up, "Animal Crosser" as he was called, had some demand, but was overshadowed by Tom Nook/KK/Resetti/Isabelle requests. Overall, I'd say Nook was the most popular, with Resetti right behind, then KK, Isabelle, then Villager. Mega Man Common but Pessimistic Guess Nearly everyone thought Mega Man was a good choice. He was a common spot on rosters and guesses. But people were pessimistic about Capcom allowing his use. Wii Fit Trainer Near Impossible Guess There's literally 2 records of her being guessed, and both were jokes. While most people seemed to ume that Wii Fit would get "A stage or something" the few times the subject was brought up, no one seriously thought she had a chance. She came out of nowhere. Rosalina and Luma Fairly Hard Guess This board was pretty...obsessed with Waluigi and Daisy at the time (with about half of the supporters being trolls) and Toad and BJ were brought up. While Rosaima had a niche, she didn't become a common guess until after she was revealed to be in SM3DW. Then, she suddenly became a lot more popular. Most people umed it was an Owain style fad. But it wasn't. Little Mac Easy Guess....In the West A weird cultural divide. A lot of the English speaking community thought it was inevitable that there'd be at least one rep for Western audiences, and Little Mac was it, especially because his reboot gave him a lot more screen time. The "Smash Bros arena" blatantly being a Punch Out arena helped things too. Overall, the stage made him a shoo-in, essentially. The JP audience...didn't see any of this, and was caught completely off guard. He was also in Gematsu, which was taken semi-seriously then. Greninja Very Hard Guess At first, people thought a Gen 6 rep would be a shoo-in. But then, with no obvious choices presenting themselves, Lucario and Mewtwo acting as secondary posterboys for the gen, and Jigglypuff getting the Fairy type, the vast majority settled on new Pokemon stuff being rep'd by old Pokemon. However, some people did expect some sort of Kalos Trainer, as transformations were only revealed to be gone within the same direct that Greninja was revealed in. Then Greninja came and caught everyone completely off guard. While it was likely among the most commonly suggested Gen 6 mons, few thought they'd show off bias towards starters like that (in the sense that one starter would be alone). Turns out, they would. "Pokemon from XY" was in Gematsu, which caused people to take it less seriously due to the vagueness of the statement, though it still had popularity...which grew after Mii Fighters. Mii Fighters Fairly Easy Guess They were in Gematsu, which was a the height of its popularity. Also...well, it was obvious they'd be in in some way. Thought they were shown as stage hazards, that really didn't hurt them too significantly in most peoples eyes, though it was points against. Some people insisted they wouldn't be in, but that was mainly out of dislike for them. There was also some concern about putting them in fighting games, when Nintendo has shown that they're pretty protective of them before, because they are "real people." But overall, they were a very likely, but unpopular choice. Palutena Very Easy Guess There was a leak that may or may not have been fake in the end, but the vast majority thought it was real. Also, she was in Gematsu, which was at the height of its popularity. Sakurai...blatantly referenced her several times, she was removed from Pit's FS, and he generally just made it obvious. By the time she was revealed, few were surprised. Pac-Man Medium Guess Like Miis, Pac was somewhat disliked by the community, making him get some people to say he had no chance out of dislike. Others thought that there were other, better choices. And some just thought he wasn't relevant anymore. A Namco employee helping with Smash even asked people to ask for a Tales character, which showed that not everyone at Namco wanted Pac. However, he was in Gematsu at the height of its popularity, and Pac was the company mascot that they always give a little special attention. Lucina Very Hard Guess Gematsu was more popular than ever, and it said Chrom. Plus Chrom was just the most obvious choice in general- why would Sakurai pick Lucina instead of Chrom, or even Robin (as seen below)? No one thought we'd get 4 FE reps either. She was also "an obvious costume" (Which turned out to be possibly true. She did originate as one, and seems to have the same model.) Most people also saw Robin as the "other" likely FE rep, after Chrom...once again, no one expected 4 FE reps. Furthermore, Lucina was seen as "Masked Marth" (as well as others like Tom Nook and Toad) during the part of Nintendo's E3 conference where they talked about amiibo, so everyone saw her as disconfirmed at that point. Robin Somewhat Hard Guess Like I said, all-time high of Gematsu popularity, and it said Chrom. Even most people who didn't believe in Gematsu expected Chrom. No one expected 4 FE reps, so Chrom was it. However, people who saw Chrom as "just another swordsman ," as Sakurai would eventually say he was, commonly said Robin, as he would be a unique addition. Before Gematsu, he was a common "alternate" suggestion to the "obvious" Chrom. Shulk Very Easy Guess Like Palutena, Shulk was commonly seen as one of the most likely characters. Sakurai was a known fan of Xenoblade. The game was wildly popular, which translated to Shulk, and once more, Gematsu. Every fan prediction roster had him, and Adam Howden hinted at it on Twitter, which stoked the fires even more. Ultimately, when Shulk was leaked and then revealed a few days later, absolutely no one was surprised. Bowser Jr. Fairly Hard Guess While Bowser Jr. was a somewhat popular choice for a Mario newcomer, most people believed that Rosalina would be the only one. He was still suggested from time to time, but he didn't show up in any leaks up until Ninka/Vaanrose and ESRB, and no one expected his Koopaling gimmick. Duck Hunt Medium Guess While Duck Hunt is treated as a meme choice nowadays, the dog was commonly seen as one of the most likely retro reps, especially after Takamaru was revealed as an AT. The only thing really holding it back was that it was a hidden newcomer, a first for retro characters. Additionally, like Bowser Jr., it didn't show up in any leaks. Mewtwo Medium Guess Mewtwo was commonly speculated to be incentive for the Wii U version prior to being revealed. What people weren't sure about was as DLC. Had DLC been confirmed ahead of time, it likely would've been seen as the single most likely choice. Lucas Fairly Hard Guess... in the West Once Mewtwo was confirmed but took a long time to release, there was speculation over whether there'd be another DLC character and, if so, who it'd be. As Wolf was the most popular cut in the west, most believed him to be next in line up until and even past Bayonetta's eventual reveal. However, Lucas was the more popular Brawl veteran, so for those in Japan who anticipated a second character, Lucas was likely next on the list. Roy Not Even a Guess While Roy wasn't necessarily predictable, he was datamined as soon as Mewtwo and Lucas came out, so everyone knew he was coming once we learned that Mewtwo wouldn't be the only DLC. Ryu Not Even a Guess Like with Roy, Ryu was datamined immediately. Without that, he likely would've been a much harder guess, especially since he was the first DLC character who wasn't a veteran. Cloud Hard Guess The most popular choice for a Final Fantasy character, but few actually predicted he would become playable. NessInEagleland, AKA Shesez, made a bold prediction that Cloud would be the very next third party character featured in the series after Ryu. Few believed him and many even mocked the idea, sparking a couple apology threads. Corrin Near Impossible Guess Fire Emblem already had five characters in Smash (including another DLC character), Fates wasn't even out yet in the west (his name was still Kamui at the time), and Sakurai had already said that everyone after Ryu would be fanservice, so no one expected yet another FE character as an advertisement. Corrin, like Wii Fit Trainer, had a few joke suggestions on the board, but no one actually expected him to be playable. Bayonetta Hard Guess Conspiracy theories about rigging aside, most expected the ballot winner to be someone like King K. Rool. Even when the Kid Icarus characters first showed up in her trailer, Hades was an easier pill to swallow. There were plenty of rallies for her, especially by notable YouTubers, and she had been a popular request around Bayonetta 2's release (which Kamiya made sure everyone was aware of during his Twitter rants), but since the series itself hadn't done very well, in the past, no one expected her to actually win. Super Smash Bros. Ultimate Inkling Very Easy Guess Inkling has probably been the single biggest shoo-in in Smash history. Splatoon was so huge that even before the end of the Wii U's lifespan, the Inkling was considered one of Nintendo's top mascots, and some were stunned that it wasn't DLC in the first place. With the announcement of Splatoon 2, there wasn't a single person who thought Inkling would miss the cut. In fact, Inkling's reveal was overshadowed by Smash Ultimate's reveal itself, since that wasn't something most expected. Everyone is here! Near Impossible Guess While there were several predictions of "no cuts," the Ice Climbers were seen as guarantees to return, and there were even some alleged leaks that included Snake and the Ice Climbers, absolutely no one expected everyone, including Squirtle, Ivysaur, Pichu, and Young Link, to return. Snake was also seen as impossible due to Konami's being Konami. The Ice Climbers and Wolf were really the only characters seen as feasible returns, no cuts or not. Daisy Very Hard Guess Daisy showed up only seconds after Sakurai introduced the concept of echo characters when previously, Alph was the only commonly speculated clone, so in terms of speculation, Daisy never actually showed up outside of as a meme. Additionally, Peach's Daisy palette was actually changed to resemble Daisy even less from Melee to Brawl, something retained in Smash 4, so if anything, that was seen as causing Daisy's chances to diminish. She was occasionally brought up as a clone here and there, including pre-Smash 4, but this was always discounted because she was never seen as a viable option, especially before the seemingly more popular Waluigi. Ridley Fairly Easy Guess After being burned three times in a row (with Smash 4's being the worst of all), plenty of Ridley supporters had given up on ever seeing him playable. At best, he was a 50/50 shot since whether he'd make it in was determined solely by whether Sakurai would change his mind, something that had happened before but still wasn't seen as likely. However, he showed up in several big leaks, with the most prominent ones coming from the Resetera admins who leaked Captain Toad: Treasure Tracker Switch and Mario Tennis Aces. Additionally, while his credibility has yet to be verified, Vergeben stated that he had at least three separate sources who were confident that Ridley would show up at E3. Without the leaks, he likely would've been a medium to hard guess, but for the most part, the only people who were truly doubting him by his reveal were those who didn't want to be burned yet again. Simon Belmont Very Easy Guess While Simon would have been extremely difficult under normal circumstances, Vergeben had insisted on him so much that he was in virtually every single fake leak, second only to K. Rool himself. Additionally, even for those who didn't believe Vergeben, E3 revealed both Snake's return and that Bomberman was an Assist Trophy, so Simon being Konami's second rep was a reasonable umption. Richter Belmont Near Impossible Guess While Simon had just about everything going for him, Richter is comparatively obscure, even less relevant, and ended up breaking what was until then a constant. Richter was the first third-party to come from the same series as another third-party, and an echo at that, which virtually no one expected. Furthermore, while there were questions about how much demand Simon actually had once Vergeben made it clear that he was going to be in, there was virtually no demand for Richter at all. Trevor and Alucard were both seen as more likely picks than Richter, but there wasn't even time for speculation about a second pick considering Richter was revealed in the same trailer as Simon. Chrom Fairly Easy Guess Chrom had a lot of things going for him. In addition to people misinterpretating his "I suppose I'll get my chance another day" line and his lingering popularity, people also noticed that Ike's Chrom palette was missing. While there was a valid reason for this (Ike lost four palettes from Smash 4 since he got his Brawl look back), and significant palettes have been cut before (such as Olimar's Louie palette in the jump to 4), many believed this confirmed Chrom. Also helping matters was Robin's Guidance, where Viridi stated Chrom would just be an Ike clone. And Robin's Final Smash was one of the few not initially revealed at E3, which people correctly umed was for a reason. As a result, few were surprised that he was playable. What was more surprising, however, was that he was an echo for Roy, not Ike. Dark Samus Very Easy Guess Take Chrom's biggest evidence (the palette and missing Final Smash), make that evidence far less circumstantial, and then add in some unintentional evidence courtesy of Ridley, and you have an echo who was speculated so much that many simply umed that she was in the roster. Not only did Samus lose the Dark Samus palette, but unlike Ike and Olimar, she had no significant reason for this. Historically, if a character loses a palette, this means that the character the palette references is playable, such as with Dark Pit in 4 and Wolf in Ultimate. In addition to this, while many Smash 4 ATs weren't immediately shown at E3, this was still seen as easy evidence for Dark Samus. Perhaps most damningly, Ridley's victory theme, rather than take after his own theme (like Dark Pit's), instead serves as an evil version of the typical Metroid victory theme (like what Bowser and Bowser Jr. have for Mario), which indicated that he wouldn't be joining the roster alone. King K. Rool Very Easy Guess Despite some doubts about relevance and urban legends that Miyamoto dislikes the Kremlings, K. Rool was the one character seen as even more of a lock than Simon. King K. Rool was bar none the single most popular character not yet in the game. He topped every single fan poll worldwide, even in Japan, and he gained a Mii costume in Smash 4 despite otherwise having no presence at all in the game outside of a trophy (for reference, the Black Knight was the only other first-party character in the game at all to get a costume). Once Sakurai explained at E3 that Ridley was put in because of fan demand, many became convinced that Smash Ultimate would become fanservice: the game. K. Rool ended up appearing on more fake leaks than Simon, and he was seen as the most likely newcomer in just about every poll, even against characters Vergeben had mentioned like Simon and Isabelle. While there were few detractors, they were a vocal minority, and even polls the day before the reveal indicated that most expected K. Rool. Category:Terminology Category:Irrelevant